• DANIEL GUZMÁN-GIRÓN

    6000 Iona Dr, Vancouver, BC V6T 1L4 · dguzman@student.ubc.ca

    I am a PhD candidate at the Vancouver School of Economics of The University of British Columbia. My main research interest lie in the fields of labor, macroeconomics and public finance. CV


WORKING PAPERS

Pricing Under Distress
with Borağan Aruoba, Andrés Fernández, Ernesto Pastén and Felipe Saffie, NBER Working Papers, 32538, June 2024

Uncertainty triggers two confounding effects: a realization and an anticipation effect. By using the 2019 riots in Chile as a quasi-natural experiment, we show that the pricing behavior of supermarkets is consistent with a pure anticipation effect: during the 31-day period following the start of the Riots, supermarkets reduce the frequency of price changes and, conditional on a price change, the absolute magnitude of price changes increase. A quantitative menu cost model with news about a future increase in idiosyncratic demand dispersion can deliver these pricing dynamics. The effectiveness of monetary policy crucially depends on the timing of the intervention.

Cyclical Wage Premia in the Informal Labour Market: Persistent and Downwardly Rigid, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1012, May 2024

Using Colombian Household Survey (GEIH) data and Schmieder and von Wachter (2010) methodology, which builds upon Beaudry and DiNardo (1991) empirical approach, I found that informal workers obtain proportionally higher wage gains than formal workers when the labour market is tight. In turn, these wage premia are persistent in the informal sector, unlike the formal one. While these wage gains appear to increase around 20% the probability of layoffs when compared to the unconditional means across both sectors, the absolute increase for informal workers can be up to six-fold larger relative to their formal counterparts. The absence of regulation and employee benefits – such as written contracts, severance payments and social insurance-seems to have an amplifying effect on the informal workers’ bargaining power during the most favourable periods of the labour market.

Procyclical fiscal policy and asset market incompleteness
with Andrés Fernández, Ruy E. Lama &and Carlos A. Vegh, NBER Working Papers, 29149, August 2021

To explain the fact that government spending and tax policy are procyclical in emerging and developing countries, we develop a model for the joint behavior of optimal tax rates and government spending over the business cycle. Our set-up relies on financial frictions, which have been shown to be critical features of emerging markets, captured by various degrees of asset market incompleteness as well as varying levels of debt-elastic interest rate spreads. We first uncover a novel theoretical result within a simple static framework: incomplete markets can account for procyclical government spending but not necessarily procyclical tax policy. Explaining procyclical tax policy also requires that the ratio of private to public consumption comoves positively with the business cycle, which leads to larger fluctuations in the tax base. We then show that the procyclicality of tax policy holds in a more realistic DSGE model calibrated to emerging markets. Finally, we illustrate how larger financial frictions which amplify the business cycle through more procyclical fiscal policies, have sizeable Lucas-type welfare costs.

Monetary Policy Surprises in Chile: Measurement & Real Effects
with Boragan Aruoba, Andrés Fernández, Ernesto Pastén and Felipe Saffie, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 921, August 2021

This paper accomplishes two goals: First, it proposes a way to compute monetary policy surprises in Chile based on a survey of financial market participants regularly conducted by Bloomberg. We argue this is the most suitable one among alternatives. Second, we use these monetary policy surprises as input in a Bayesian Vector Auto Regression analysis to estimate the effect of contractionary monetary policy. Output and inflation tend to fall while funding costs tend to increase. Expected inflation a has hump-shaped response and nominal exchange rates tend to depreciate instead of appreciating. We argue the latter two effects are consistent with an “information channel” embedded in monetary policy decisions.


WORK IN PROGRESS

“Firm Responses to Higher VAT on Services Purchases” with Diana Ricciulli-Marin (First draft coming soon!!)

“Firm Networks and Wage Determination” with Sebastian Melo

“Covid Inflation” with Borağan Aruoba, Gonzalo Garcia and Felipe Saffie